If a family member asked my advice and they were scheduled to close on a mortgage purchase or refinance in the time periods indicated below, I would recommend... Updated lock recommendation as of 2:38 pm (EST)
1-7 Days 8-20 Days 21-45 Days 46 Days Plus Locking Floating Floating Floating Morning Recommendation at 9:50 am (EST)
1-7 Days 8-20 Days 21-45 Days 46 Days Plus Locking Locking Floating Floating Update - 2:31 pm (EST) - MBS coupons still trading in green or positive territory. FNMA 5.5 102-01 +0-13 Update - 11:33 am (EST) - MBS coupons trading in green or positive territory. FNMA 5.0 99-28 +0-10 The Bottom line - I'm bordering on locking for 7 or 20 days or less. While I'm leaning towards a 20 day lock recommendation, I would keep my eye on the MBS coupons for further movement into the red, however there is good chance the MBS will see green. Jobless claims released this morning came in 14,000 less than expected at 601,000 and decreased 24,000 from the previous week. Retail Sales (minus auto sales) also came in stronger than expected (.02%) with and increase of .05%. As expected, MBS coupons are taking directional lead from MBS yield curve fluctuations. However, expect traders to begin taking advantage of the deeply discounted rate sheet influentials thus leading to yield spreads tightening. Again, I recommend watching the MPS coupon pricing today. For current MBS pricing, checkout the "MBS Price Data" chart in the far right column (underneath Subscription & Contact Links). Other excellent sites providing insightful market commentary: Important Note: These recommendations to lock or float constitute solely my opinion and are not represented nor should be taken as a guarantee of mortgage rate direction.
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GNMA 5.0 100-08 +0-14
GNMA 5.0 100-04 +0-10
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